honormeh_agangaVANTAA, Finland – Antti Kettunen pulls out his Glock 17, aiming and shooting at a target on either side of a barrier, before sprinting over to a jagged wall with holes in it and firing again.
It’s another Tuesday night of training for the Vantaa Reserves Association, the local chapter of the Finnish Reservists’ Association. But since Russia invaded Ukraine, these nights at a local range have felt different.
There’s an extra energy in the air, perhaps best shown by anxious chatter over the group’s social media channels or their increased numbers. More than a quarter of its 1,354 members have joined in the past several weeks.
In the weeks since war broke out in Europe, thousands of Finns have signed up with training associations to sharpen their military skills or learn new ones like first aid. The dramatic rise has been fueled by anxiety over Finland’s geographic proximity to Russia. For the first time in Finland’s history, a majority of Finns are in favor of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a defensive alliance.
“Our president says we are not scared, but we are aware,” said Kettunen, dressed in combat boots, a camouflage vest and shirt, and olive green pants. “That’s quite nice to say, but where else do they (the Russians) go if the plan is to make The Great Russia, from Lisbon to the Japanese sea?”
Finland remains one of the few European nations with mandatory military service, primarily due to its lengthy 830-mile shared border and memories of battles with Russia during the last century. That history has also shaped its politics, which focused on neutrality during the Cold War and walking a middle ground between the West and Russia ever since as key to maintaining its independence.
For years, joining NATO, which was created to limit Soviet expansion, seemed like a distant possibility for many Finns. Now, it is an urgent option for many, with some Finns noting that Ukraine’s efforts to join the alliance were rebuffed before it was invaded.
In recent weeks, Finnish officials have engaged in a whirlwind of meetings with European officials and officials say the country’s politicians could begin the process of joining NATO by summer. That’s despite threats from Moscow about the possible consequences for the nation of 5.5 million should it take that route.
“We never let our guard down after the Cold War ended, as many European Countries did,” said Janne Kuusela, director general at Finnish Ministry of Defense. “In that sense, we’re well placed to defend ourselves if need be in the future.”
Kuusela said there is no direct threat to Finland from Russia, but there are concerns among Finns about a prolonged period of instability in Europe. The two countries previously enjoyed lots of cross-border travel and trade, but that has been cut off for weeks because of sanctions enacted against Russia, he said.
“There’s quite poor visibility for what lies ahead, there’s lots of uncertainty and it may be that there will be a longer period of poor relations between Russia and the West,” Kuusela said.
Although 900,000 Finns nationwide have gone through military training, the country’s wartime reserve capacity has seen 280,000 of them trained up to mobilize.
Many more Finns have decided they want to be ready to join the fight. The 45,000-member national reservist association gained more than 6,300 new members in recent months, nearly twice the number of people who joined its ranks between 2015 through 2021. Meanwhile, the National Defense Training Association of Finland, which is supervised by the Ministry of Defense and works closely with the military, has seen up to an eight-fold increase in the number of training course enrollees, with more classes oversubscribed than ever before.
“Many people say they are alarmed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they want to keep their military capabilities up to date, they want to learn new things, they want maybe to make up for mandatory service they didn’t take very seriously at the time,” said Ossi Hietala, training officer for the National Defense Training Association of Finland. “They want to make sure they are prepared for the worst.”
That’s what Kettunen and his buddy Vesa Kortelainen, 44, who led drills with a half-dozen members at the recent practice, have heard from people joining the group. Both served in the same platoon in Kosovo decades ago.
“The consensus is it’s not looking good for Europe at the moment,” Kortelainen said, noting that while unlikely, the risk of the war spreading is higher than it was at any other time in his lifetime. “For Finns, it’s more probable to go to war than it has been in my lifetime.”
Russia’s invasion has unified and strengthened the country, taking away the internal focus from petty partisan arguments, Kortelainen said. “Now even the dreamers see that anything is possible,” he added.
Kortelainen said he’s been saying Finland should join NATO since the 1990s after the Soviet Union collapsed, but the country has been ambivalent because of its close cultural ties to Russia. Culturally, it’s East facing, but economically and through its values, it faces West.
He said Finns have been too gullible about neutrality, wanting to “be friends with Russia.” But after their actions in Ukraine, he wonders if this is even possible.
“In my opinion, the best time to apply for membership is now, and the second-best option is today,” Kortelainen said.
For many Finns, memories of the Winter War in 1939 evoke a kind of post-traumatic stress and a sense of deja vu.
At the time, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin used concerns over a possible attack by Nazi Germany to demand, among other things, that Finland move a portion of its border with the Soviet Union back 16 miles. After failed negotiations, the Red Army invaded with 450,000 troops. The United Nations predecessor, the League of Nations, expelled the Soviet Union for what it deemed an illegal attack.
“It was like Ukraine in February, everybody cheering for Finland, but we were left quite alone, we had to fight insane odds” against Russia without military support, Kortelainen said.
Despite impressive resistance, the Finns were no match for the Red Army’s sheer numbers and superior military strength. After roughly three months, Finland agreed to peace terms, ceding 11% of its territory to the Soviet Union, but managing to maintain its independence.
More recently, if the Finns thought their efforts to stay neutral were any type of protection from Russia, Russia’s war against Ukraine showed them otherwise.
Today, roughly 60% of Finns support joining NATO, up from pre-war numbers that saw 20% of Finns supporting membership and the vast majority undecided about the matter. Finnish parents who once worried about their children being forced to fight in a war have seen that Russia’s actions cannot necessarily be influenced by what their country does or does not do.
“Russia has shown when they went to Ukraine that they never changed,” said Minna Nenonen, executive director of The Finnish Reservists’ Association. “They are always Russia and they are always behaving the same way. So now all Finns know it’s very possible that at some point they could come here also.”
Timo Virtanen, 35, co-founder of a Finnish IT software company, is one of six Finns who put forward a referendum to bring the question of whether Finland should join NATO to a public vote. All six found each other on a small gaming forum before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Never hugely political, Virtanen felt like this was a moment to act. Finns have felt an acute sense of anxiety since Russia invaded Ukraine, with potassium iodide pills to counteract thyroid damage against radiation difficult to find in the country and efforts underway to ensure bomb shelters are in good working order.
Most tangible, perhaps, was watching NATO nations move their soldiers to strategic positions to protect one another while Ukraine was on its own against Russia.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made some moves possible that just weren’t a year back, or a couple of months back,” Virtanen said. “Now it seems that we are getting on a more honest level, that well, you (Russia) are not to be trusted. So we better do what’s best for us.”
For years, Finnish officials have said joining NATO would require clear support from Finnish citizens. But, Virtanen said, they have never worked to increase such support, often referencing the “NATO option” as a way to acknowledge but never truly act on the issue.
A similar effort to submit a pro-NATO initiative to Parliament was put forth several years earlier, but at the time Virtanen didn’t even hear about it. It failed to get enough signatures to qualify. This time around, the effort, which went live three days before the invasion, gained the 50,000 required signatures in a week and then some – more than 76,007 people signed in support. It was sent to Parliament on March 8.
Virtanen said some of the people who signed expressed a sense of relief to him and that “perhaps by signing this thing and giving support to this initiative, at least I’ve done something to make Finland more secure.”
Parliament isn’t obliged to act on the referendum and conduct a public vote, but its submission is history-making nonetheless.
Virtanen said Finland would be an asset to NATO, given its strategic location and overall readiness as a nation.
“I can’t see that much harm in joining, especially since I presume that one can always resign. So why not give it a try,” Virtanen said. “I’d be surprised if it’s not something we’ll try in the next couple of years.”
Tami Abdollah is a USA TODAY correspondent. Send tips via direct message @latams or email tami(at)usatoday.com
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Russia invade Finland? Finns prepare for war, favor joining NATO
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